October 3, 2016

This is a chart that appeared in the Weekly Macro Themes (for subscribers to the institutional service), which I thought I would provide a quick update on given the September data is now out.  The key message is that the global PMI trade orders subindex indicator is an...

October 3, 2016

What happens if you take a fairly well understood, well-functioning and widely used technical analytical method from the stock market and apply it to something completely different?  Well today we answer that question by taking measures of stock market breadth, namely...

October 2, 2016

The results for the weekly equity sentiment poll are in and there are a couple of interesting trends worth pointing out.  As a reminder the weekly equity sentiment poll uses twitter polling and distinguishes between bullish and bearish on equities for fundame...

October 1, 2016

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter and StockTwits will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's ju...

October 1, 2016

Here's a chart I find particularly interesting.  As Q3 earnings season kicks off this month a question on many investors' minds is whether the US earnings recession is over.  The chart below shows the ECRI Weekly Leading Index vs the year-on-year change in S&...

October 1, 2016

China's official (NBS or National Bureau of Statistics) PMIs for September were more or less in line with expectations and remained in expansionary territory.  By the numbers: Official manufacturing PMI unchanged at 50.4 (Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI was 50.1 vs 50....

September 30, 2016

The latest Eurozone unemployment and inflation data were just released with the unemployment rate still stuck at 10.1% and headline inflation creeping up to 0.4% y/y (0.2% previous, and core inflation at 0.8%).  Whenever I see the unemployment rate and inflation rate i...

September 29, 2016

The latest (of many) rumors and official jawboning say that OPEC have come to a deal to adjust production. But there's a number of problems with this.  Even if we put aside the fact that OPEC has lost the clout it once commanded, and ignore the internal politics, rival...

September 28, 2016

The Westpac/MNI Consumer Sentiment survey for September (just released) rose 3.7pts to 115.2.  This is a volatile series that changes a lot month to month; the 3 month average was 113.6 against the long run average of 119.6.  So while the improvement is worth noting it...

September 27, 2016

Tuning out from the US presidential debate for a moment, another debate seems to be raging over in Europe.  The debate between the stock market and the economy.  The September German Ifo Business Survey showed a 3.2pt jump in the headline index to 109.5, a 29...

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