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Tuesday Technicals - 25 October 2016


Here's the regular 5 macro technical charts (going as far as individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and sectors, as well as the rest of the major indexes and benchmarks). No comments on anything except the technical/price developments (albeit we will typically cover the broader case in the Weekly Macro Themes where the technical and fundamental set up produce a compelling investment idea). Even if you're not technical analysis minded it's a useful way to keep on top of trends in some of the main financial markets and as a prompt for further investigation...

1. Crude Oil - Bearish divergence

-WTI crude oil is putting in a minor bearish divergence pattern on the daily chart (higher highs on price vs lower highs on the RSI.

-This is coming after hitting a key resistance level which in the past preceded a $10 move.

-Seasonality is also turning negative now.

Overall technical view: Short term bearish.

2. Gold - Internal uptrend line

-If there is a new uptrend in gold, then this internal trendline is the key to its success.

-A bounce off the trend line will open up a move toward $1350.

-However a break to the downside will bring the key support level of $1200 back in to play.

Overall technical view: Bullish bias, but with tight stops.

3. Gold Miners - Bullish Divergence

-The lower low on the price of gold miners is being met by higher lows in the RSI and MACD histogram.

-So far the 200 day moving average is acting as support.

-Confirmation comes from a break of the 50dma and consistent action in the gold price (see above).

Overall technical view: Bullish bias, 50dma break as a potential entry.

4. ASX200 - Uptrend test

-The ASX200 has been trading to a steep uptrend line through 2016, and is currently testing the line.

-One thing to keep an eye on is a potential head and shoulders top, which would likely take it back down through support of 5200.

-A successful test of the trendline will take it towards and possibly through resistance of 5600.

Overall technical view: Bullish bias, but be wary of a break of the trend line.

5. VIX - Uptrends and Seasonality

-As is usual for this time of the year the VIX has been trending upwards.

-Odds are in favor of a VIX spike whenever the VIX falls below its 50 and 200 day moving averages (now) and when the oscillators are at the current levels (Stochastics, William's R%, RSI).

-The historical seasonal pattern is that the VIX is generally higher in H2, particularly October/November, albeit the peak is typically around now. Election years usually see this pattern accentuated.

Overall technical view: Bullish bias on volatility, odds are presently in favor of a spike.

Thanks to Investing.com and StockCharts.com and BarChart.com for charts.

Previous editions:

Tuesday Technicals - 18 October 2016

Tuesday Technicals - 11 October 2016

Tuesday Technicals - 4 October 2016

#technicals #strategy #equities #commodities #gold

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