Chart of the Week - US Housing Better and Worse
- Callum Thomas
- Oct 4, 2022
- 1 min read
Housing Market Risk: The US housing market is both better and worse than pre-financial crisis. On the one hand debt to income ratios have come down a lot — meaning less leverage and therefore less likelihood of negative equity, defaults, credit stress, and systemic risk to the banking system.
Borrowers also have a greater likelihood of having fixed their interest rate, with much less exposure to variable rates this time around.
However — house purchasing power goes down as rates go up. Regardless of mortgage stress, this mathematical fact naturally acts as a sinking lid on house prices.
This is particularly interesting when you realize US housing market valuations have surpassed the extremes of the subprime bubble. So maybe we see less stress given less leverage, but we still likely see a material correction as rate shock meets stretched valuations. At the very least this will act as a clear headwind to growth/confidence.
Key point: US housing market is less leveraged, but more expensive vs pre-08.
NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts
Follow us on:
Excelente análisis sobre la situación del mercado inmobiliario y los desafíos que enfrenta debido al aumento de las tasas de interés. La explicación es clara, informativa y fácil de comprender. Mientras leía este interesante artículo económico, también consulté los resultados de la loteria nacional. Gracias por compartir perspectivas tan valiosas y bien fundamentadas.
Great insights! Navigating Illinois construction requires balancing strict Chicago codes with seasonal weather shifts. Localized construction estimating services in Illinois are vital to control material costs and protect profit margins. Accurate bidding is a survival tool here. Thanks for sharing!
A ccna course remains relevant because networking continues to support modern business systems. Even with remote work, cloud services, and mobile devices, organisations still rely on secure and reliable connections. A course can help learners understand the technical principles behind those connections. It can also improve practical problem-solving in IT support and infrastructure roles. For learners pursuing a technical career, networking knowledge can be a strong professional foundation.
This is an interesting analysis of the current U.S. housing market, highlighting both strong and weak-performing regions. Understanding housing trends is important for builders, investors, and construction professionals when planning future projects. As market conditions continue to evolve, professional drywall estimating services can help contractors create accurate budgets, manage material costs, and prepare competitive bids with greater confidence. Great insights into an important sector of the economy.
Interesting insights in this Chart of the Week on the strengths and weaknesses of the US housing market. Understanding market trends is essential for making informed decisions and planning future developments. These kinds of insights are also valuable for professionals who rely on construction estimating services to improve budgeting accuracy, manage costs, and ensure successful project execution. Great analysis and useful data!