Search

Market Cycle Guidebook - July 2021

We just published our July "Market Cycle Guidebook", which is a key part of our institutional investment research service.

​​The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors. It focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the intention of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.

​​

Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook: -Front page snapshot summary on the global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations -Market performance snapshot & commentary /highlights -Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); basically an "AA cheat sheet"

-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views -Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions -And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe

-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)

Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:


The next phase of the recovery...


-The beginning of the second half of the year brings a new phase of the recovery

--previous rotations have “un-rotated”

--policy is increasingly pivoting from easing to tightening

--virus resurgences are driving short-term economic divergences

--backlogs continue to bight.


-The second wave of the global economic recovery likely is driven by

--multi-pronged capex/investment boom

--stronger consumer (relief euphoria, cash deployment, asset inflation)

--and likely sees a continuation of the commodity bull market

---those along with tightening capacity skew medium-term inflation risks upwards


-Anticipate that the coming months/quarters/years will reward those who take a more nuanced approach to active asset allocation as macro transitions and market rotations bring risks and opportunities

--July however reminded us that rotations can quickly un-rotate

---Perhaps we need to expect a series of rotations for now vs a major turning point


-Remain overweight growth assets vs defensive assets

--longer cycle is still in play; favoring growth assets

--but increasingly focused on short-term risk signals and cycle map

--paying closer attention to old reliable signposts for the macro/market cycle

--short-term focused on the risk outlook in emerging markets


The report is designed for active asset allocators, and professional investors who require top-down input in their investment process.


If you are interested in learning more about this report and our services, I suggest you get set up for a trial today and we will forward through a copy of the Market Cycle Guidebook and some of our other recent reports.

If you have any questions or requests, just get in contact.


Best regards,

Callum Thomas

Head of Research and Founder

>> To request a copy of the full report, subscribe, or take up a free trial, please fill in the form here.

About the Service:

Our institutional service caters to multi-asset portfolio managers and investment professionals. The service comprises a set of reports (2 weekly, 1 monthly, 1 quarterly) and personalized service to help make the portfolio managers' job easier. With the service we deliver a flow of investment ideas, risk management input, and meaningful macro insights.

Our Head of Research and founder spent his career on the buy-side, and our reports reflect that perspective with a clear "so what?" focus rather than research for research sake. The reports are punchy and chart/fact focused, and are easy to read both in terms of speed and understanding: so clients often end up saving time and getting better insights. So if you're looking for a dedicated and specialist service to help you deliver excellent returns for your clients, give us a try.

Follow us on:

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts

Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts


327 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All