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Weekly Macro Themes - 17 September 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Global Equities – Tax Trends: The trend of falling effective tax rates for global equities looks to be coming to an end based on a couple of very interesting charts; expect this trend to go from tailwind to headwind for corporate earnings.

2. Crude Oil Price Outlook: We review the key charts and indicators to get a firm read on the medium-term supply vs demand outlook, and what it means for crude oil prices.

3. Energy Stocks: Following on from the crude oil price outlook, we highlight how this plays into the energy sector (and MLPs), given where valuations, positioning, market weightings, and intermarket linkages lie.

4. Global Listed Infrastructure: Remain neutral in lieu of any clear valuation signal, lacklustre technicals.

5. Gold Miners: An interesting tactical opportunity appears to be emerging in gold miners relative to the S&P500 - we see a few key lines in the sand and specific triggers to watch.



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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