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Weekly Macro Themes - 22 April 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Treasuries: We look at the short-term indicators for bonds, but also review (and rejig) the valuation models, and peer into what's driving yields in terms of macro (economy, inflation, now vs later)... and come up with a few estimates in terms of fair value + when to buy!


2. TIPS (breakevens): Basically trying to figure out how much of inflation is priced-in... but also the subtleties around timing/sequence given the macro outlook.


3. Credit: While some indicators justify the current tight level of credit spreads, miniscule risk premia, market divergences, and Fed policy outlook suggest credit is on borrowed time -- retain the risk-watch on credit spreads.


4. EM Bonds: Full review of the macro/value/technical/sentiment situation for emerging market sovereign bonds -- what we see as a particularly interesting corner of the markets.


5. Global ex-US Equities: Continue to favor global vs US equities on a strategic/longer-term basis, but still awaiting critical confirmation from earnings/macro/sectors/technicals. We've got all the key charts you need to see to know where to be...



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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