Weekly Macro Themes - 24 June 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Commodities: Reviewing the outlook for commodity prices based on multiple charts across technicals, sentiment/flows/positioning, macro, intermarkets, and valuation indicators... with all signs pointing in one direction.

2. Inflation vs Growth: Expect to see an eventual pivot in the narrative from upside risks to inflation to downside risks to growth (and ultimately disinflation/deflation) as the fundamental drivers shift. Reject stagflation narratives, things are about to change.

3. Treasuries: Although there are some lingering risks, the outlook for treasuries has significantly shifted (valuations, sentiment, macro, and tentatively technicals).

4. EM Bonds: Tentative topping technicals for EM govt yields line up with extreme cheap valuations, extreme pessimistic sentiment, and contrarian bullish moves in EM sovereign CDS. Check out the charts and specific comments around implementation/nuance in the asset class view.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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