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Weekly Macro Themes - 18 November 2016

November 18, 2016

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes.


1. Bond bust - is it over yet? A look at bond market breadth, implied volatility, futures positioning, mutual fund flows, and some vital input on the fundamentals to assess whether the bond market "trump tantrum" is close to being over yet, and what to expect next for bond yields.


2. Whatever happened to European Equities? A look at the Euro Stoxx 50 and MSCI EMU Index in terms of valuations, earnings and profit margins, ETF flows, and key levels and trends to form a view on the outlook.


3. Crude oil price outlook: speculative futures positioning and implied volatility say one thing, but seasonality and the US dollar say another thing; this piece looks at the balance of evidence and a key catalyst for oil.


4. Gold - Why rising inflation expectations are NOT helping: Charts show the critical importance of real yields for the gold price, but more to the point the drivers of the real yield. Also includes a long look back at history to find clues for the future direction of nominal yields and real yields.


5. Trumped - An "obvious" danger: Possibly one of the best charts on the election that you will ever see - and some insightful lessons on market psychology and investing.



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