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ChartBrief #54 - China PMI Plateau

February 1, 2017

The January manufacturing PMI for China fell -0.1 to 51.3 and non-manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 54.6. In other words the rebound looks to have plateaued.  As a reminder, the key drivers of the rebound and breakout from the sustained downtrend has been fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, and a resurgent property market.  Lately there have also been signs of life in the export sector following recessionary conditions of the past couple of years.  China's stimulus-driven cyclical upturn will likely roll over later this year ...but perhaps not until after the 2017 leadership transition in the second half of the year!

 

Thanks to stimulus and property China's has seen a cyclical upturn shake it out of its downtrend. (note: the chart below combines manufacturing and non-manufacturing)

 

A look under the hood shows most of the sub-indexes registering above the 50 point expansion vs contraction mark.

 

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