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ChartBrief 186 - Bear Market Indicator

February 7, 2018

Don't let the title put you off, this bear market warning indicator is actually giving the all clear.  This chart featured in the first exclusive Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm on Twitter. It capped off a series of 10 charts which outlined the key macro and fundamental backdrop underpinning the stock market outlook. 


The overall conclusion being that this is a "healthy correction" or in other words a reset of extreme bullish sentiment and rising leverage.  Meanwhile, as this chart confirms, the macro backdrop is still solid.  Until indicators like this start to turn the risk of a bear market remains low in the immediate term.


The key implication being that this is likely a buying opportunity, even if some more water still needs to go under the bridge.  Nevertheless, it is a shot across the bows that we are entering into a new regime of higher volatility as the cycle matures and global central banks turn the corner. 




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