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Weekly Macro Themes - 13 December 2019

December 13, 2019

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. To receive a copy just click through to contact us or request a trial.

 

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

 

1. 2019 vs 2018 – Initial Reflections:  As we near the end of 2019 defensive assets look expensive, various measures of sentiment and confidence have reset, and monetary policy is back into stimulus mode.


2. US Dollar:  With yield support rolling over, valuation slightly expensive, positioning stretched to the long side, the USD outlook remains bearish with a couple of possible catalysts in play.


3. Gold:  Though some of the indicators for gold have reset slightly from the strong bearish signals back in September, I retain a bearish bias until a more meaningful reset takes place.


4. Oil & Energy Stocks:  The risk outlook for crude oil is shifting to the upside, and this could be just what the deep value energy and MLP sectors need to wake them out of their slumber.


5. EM Sovereign Bonds:  While credit risk pricing is already quite tight and the duration outlook is not good, the FX outlook provides some consolation for local currency EM sovereign bonds.

 

 

 

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists.  The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.

 

 

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