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ChartBrief #35 China Inflation Numbers


China's November inflation figures were just out, CPI (consumer) inflation was 2.3% y/y vs 2.2% expected, 2.1% previous, and PPI (producer) inflation was 3.3% y/y vs 2.2% expected, 1.2% previous. Clearly the big story here is producer prices, and it has been the big turnaround story of 2016...

The turnaround in PPI inflation in China from deep deflation to accelerating inflation has taken most by surprise, and is driven by the rebound in China's property market, the rebound in commodities more broadly, and fiscal stimulus surge in China.

While the rise in PPI inflation means higher nominal GDP growth in China, a better macro-backdrop for China's industry, and a more complicated environment to run monetary policy (expect no more rate cuts in China!) it also has wider implications.

The pattern has been that high and rising PPI inflation in China is generally good for emerging market equities. These relationships can breakdown, but so far it seems to be working despite a few bumps along the way. So more PPI inflation in China will be positive for the outlook for emerging market equities.

Finally, it also adds to a global trend of more inflation and less deflation. The more places you see this happen the more it tends to build on itself at a global level, and thus it's increasingly likely that the bottom in bond yields is soundly based, and thus higher bond yields are not out of the question.

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#China #globalmacro #economy #commodities #emergingmarkets

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