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ChartBrief 57 - An Annoying Chart

Sometimes you have great charts with powerful insights and clear, logical, actionable signals. Sometimes you have charts that although they might be interesting, don't have a signal, are sort of in a zone of no conviction, or that don't really say anything meaningful. And then you have those charts that occupy the space between these two categories! And that's what we're looking at in today's ChartBrief. The DM composite PMI, although higher vs a year ago, slipped in February. It still points to higher bond yields, but the conclusion becomes slightly less powerful now. Having said that, the data continues to surprise to the upside, and the rebound in China and selected other emerging markets tends to reinforce the thesis of a synchronized global economic upturn, at least for now... (more on this topic and others in this week's forthcoming edition of the Weekly Macro Themes).

The chart that picked the rebound in bond yields continues to flag higher yields, but the February data point clouds the conclusion, even if only slightly.

The improving economic data is still surprising, which in itself is surprising.

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