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Weekly Macro Themes - 20 July 2018

Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.

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1. Commodities: In aggregate the risks are to the downside for commodities as key levels are breached and the prospects of a stronger USD and global growth scare mount.

2. Copper: Copper could fall another 15% from here based on our charts and analysis.

3. Crude Oil: We look at the risk/reward outlook for WTI crude oil prices with regards to futures positioning, the US dollar, the supply/demand balance, and seasonality. We also check in on the energy sector of the S&P500.

4. Gold: We review the risk/reward outlook for gold prices based on real yields, supply vs demand trends, the level of implied volatility, and shifts in sentiment. We reiterate our previous view on gold.

5. Silver (vs Gold): Silver looks better positioned than gold, but it’s important to understand the behavior of silver/gold relative performance vs key macro indicators (particularly growth/risk/rates).

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.

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