Chart: Fundamental Sentiment Reset
- Callum Thomas
- Aug 6, 2018
- 1 min read
This chart comes from the weekly survey I run on Twitter, which asks respondents whether they are bullish or bearish on equities and bonds for primarily fundamental vs technical reasoning. There has been an interesting pattern in "fundamentals" sentiment, with the turnaround in bond fundamentals sentiment seeming to presage the reset in equity fundamental sentiment. With a rolling over of reflation trade futures positioning, there seems to be a broadening agreement that the macro momentum has slipped recently. Whether this is simply a reset from excess optimism, or a sign of things to come remains to be seen. I'm erring on the side of optimism on the cyclical outlook, but with the scene set for a further round of US dollar strength, one will need to be wary of risk-off feedback loops in emerging markets, commodities, and risk assets in general.
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The economy may still recover, but investors are becoming less confident, Melon playground and a stronger US dollar could become the trigger that exposes weaknesses in global markets. The next phase depends on whether this sentiment decline is just a temporary correction or the early signal of a broader slowdown.