Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. Also be sure to check out the 2018 End of Year Special Edition to see some of our best calls of last year and charts to watch for the year ahead.
This week we covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Confidence Divergence: Stability in global consumer confidence and emerging markets indicators, along with a tick-up in the global confidence diffusion indicators present some cause for optimism.
2. US Dollar Outlook: Odds are the DXY upside breakout has failed and risks are tilted to the downside.
3. Oil Check: Given a slight reset in positioning, spike in implied volatility, impending seasonal tailwinds, and possible US dollar weakness, the weight of risks have switched from bearish to bullish for WTI crude.
4. REITs: Given overvaluation, multiple risk drivers, souring tactical indicators; remain bearish US REITs.
5. RBA + ASX: With substantial yield support, rate cuts, and rebounding macro/earnings pulse, Australian equities may be about to shake-off their 10-year relative bear market vs MSCI World.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.
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