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Weekly Macro Themes - 22 November 2019

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. To receive a copy just click through to contact us or request a trial.

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Global Ex-US: US equities look to be near the end of another ~10-year cycle of outperformance (based on valuations, price performance, expected returns, and a bearish longer term view on the US dollar).

2. US Small Caps: Though the valuation picture is complex, US small caps are clearly out of favour and have been left behind; this opens up scope for catch-up.

3. Australian Equities: Bullish given supportive relative value and an on-balance positive macro backdrop.

4. Expected Returns – Equities (by country): After adjusting for FX and valuations, the global ex-US picture (from topic 1) looks all the more interesting on a country-by-country basis.

5. Expected Returns – Government Bonds: The picture changes after adjusting expected real yields for FX.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.

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