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Weekly Macro Themes - 21 February 2020

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. To receive a copy just click through to contact us or request a trial.

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. China Macro: Given existing trends of softer core inflation, a weak hard data pulse, and likely further slowing of property price growth… (+add the virus impacts), expect more monetary easing by the PBOC.

2. Treasuries: Medium-term risk/return outlook for treasuries is skewed to the downside given overbought breadth indicators, flip in sentiment, and stretched valuations.

3. US Dollar: Wary of the bullish run, but given medium-term technicals, positioning, valuation, cycle indicators, continue to retain medium-term bearish bias on the DXY.

4. Gold: With a breakout in gold through 1600 and breakdown in UST real yields through 0% it looks like the path is clear for further upside, even as valuations become further stretched.

5. REITs: Global (and in particular US) REIT valuations have reached extreme levels.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.

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