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Weekly Macro Themes - 28 February 2020


Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. To receive a copy just click through to contact us or request a trial.

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Market Update: After a rough week, equities are starting to look oversold (and bonds overbought), but there are as many risk signals (e.g. breakdowns) as short-term bottoming signals.

2. Global Equity Valuation Check: Valuations have improved slightly across global equities, especially on an ERP basis. But the movement in absolute terms is not compelling.

3. Monthly Macroscope: The cycle/monetary/valuation macroscope helps frame the medium term growth vs defensive discussion, and at this point I would argue it supports a ‘stay the course’ position.

"Why only 3 topics this week?"

from the email: n.b. As you might have guessed from my email the other day, I have spent most of this week working on the upgrades to the reports - and as noted in my email on the upcoming changes, when the monthly is due to be published on a Monday (as will be the case this time) the norm will be to do a "lite" version of the Weekly Macro. As such this week features only 3 topics.

One elephant in the room I am conscious of is obviously there's a lot going on in markets right now. I have provided some initial thoughts on that in the attached, but between letting the dust settle over the weekend, getting more data/chart updates, and publishing the monthly on Monday - I feel I will be in a better position to provide a more well thought-through set of views and conclusions at that time... indeed the Monthly will contain this explicitly in the TAA guide + asset class views, so stay tuned for that, and in the meantime let me know if you have any questions/concerns.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.

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