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Weekly Macro Themes - 20 March 2020


Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (one of the key reports of our institutional research service). To receive a copy just click through to contact us or request a trial.

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Credit Check: Credit is facing a perfect storm as multiple sectors come under pressure, yet (as a result) sentiment and valuations are starting to look attractive from a contrarian standpoint.

2. US Dollar: Treating the USD breakout with scepticism given the procession of false breaks on both sides over the past couple years (also yield support is fading and valuations are getting stretched).

3. Commodities: (more) Bullish medium-term on cheap valuations, supportive capex/supply outlook, and the ZLTEI thesis. Meanwhile short-term/tactical indicators have moved sharply (to contrarian bullish).

4. China Property: China property prices took a hit in Feb, but may bounce back as pent up demand and marginally easier policy helps; this should be supportive for iron ore prices.

5. TIPS/Inflation Expectations: TIPS breakevens (much like their intermarket analogs) are trading at compelling cheap valuations, and mean reversion + the ZLTEI thesis support the medium-term case.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, weekly markets monitor, and quarterly slide deck.

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