Chart of the Week - Global Equity Risk Premium
- Callum Thomas
- Sep 6, 2022
- 1 min read
ERP Valuation Indicator: This is an important chart for global equities. Despite some reduction in valuations (e.g. PE Ratios have fallen), the issue is that bond yields have gone up as well, so the equity risk premium has not really improved.
For instance, compare and contrast the current levels of the ERP [Equity Risk Premium] vs that seen during the peak of the pandemic panic or the 2008 financial crisis. Current levels are simply not compelling, certainly not compared to those episodes.
The ERP works well as a key input for asset allocation e.g. by giving buy signals when it spikes (n.b. higher = better) because it reflects outright valuations, but also valuations relative to the risk free alternative (i.e. bonds) — and indirectly also reflects sentiment and monetary conditions with regards to changes in bond yields.
Simply put, the higher the ERP, the better compensation you are getting for being in risky assets vs “safe“ assets. So clearly, a lower ERP means less compensation for risk, and hence a riskier setup, all else equal.
The key takeaway is that the current level of the ERP is not particularly attractive for US equities. Even the rest of the world, while boasting a higher ERP vs the USA, still hasn’t moved up to previous major buying opportunity levels at this point.
Hence again, we see another indicator saying “not yet“ for global equities.
Key point: Global ERPs have not improved much since the onset of bear market.
NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts
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Is the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) a reliable market indicator? Personally, I've found it useful for high-level assessments of market sentiment, noting how changes in bond yields affect risk appetite. However, it's just one piece of the puzzle; over-reliance can be misleading. Fun fact: Speaking of risky, Pacman 30th Anniversary was way back in 2010!
Interesting analysis on the Equity Risk Premium! It's a good reminder that lower ERP means less compensation for risk. This makes me think of navigating risky situations in io games. You always have to weigh the risks and rewards, just like in the market. Playing io games often requires quick decisions based on limited information, similar to investing when the ERP isn't compelling.
Simple but addictive, Geometry Dash made me "retry" hundreds of times without being able to stop.
A very insightful post, Callum. It’s easy to focus on falling PE ratios and assume equities are getting cheaper — but this chart reminds us that valuation must be mapquest directions considered relative to bond yields. The stagnant (or even falling) ERP signals we’re not being sufficiently compensated for equity risk right now. A clear “hold your fire” for long-term investors looking for strong entry points. Great context, especially in light of tightening monetary conditions. 👏📉 #ERP #GlobalEquities #TopdownCharts
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