Market Cycle Guidebook - August 2022
- Callum Thomas
- Sep 2, 2022
- 2 min read
We just published the latest "Market Cycle Guidebook", which is one of the main reports in our institutional investment research service.
The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical & tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors.
It focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the intention of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.
Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook: -Front page snapshot summary on the global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations -Market performance snapshot & commentary /highlights -Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); basically an "AA cheat sheet"
-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views -Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions -And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe
-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)
>> Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:
-The global growth outlook has deteriorated further
--multiple leading indicators point to recession
--data pulse showing clear signs of slowdown
-Yet inflation remains high (for now)
--central banks continue to hike with urgency
--inflation expectations elevated
-Anticipate central banks focus to remain on inflation vs growth
--this remains an unfriendly macro backdrop
--looking for inflation to peak, but not there yet
---stagflation for now, but deflation soon
-Remain underweight growth assets, overweight defensive assets
--especially like government bonds
---but also cash (guaranteed nominal return on/of capital)
-Remain underweight commodities, equities, property, credit
--few bright spots, but a lot of progress on valuation re-rating
--sentiment has reset lower in many respects, but not positioning
--expect global recession to dent earnings, demand, sentiment
The report is designed for active asset allocators, and professional investors who require top-down input in their investment process. If you are interested in learning more about this report and our services Learn About Subscribing today.
Alternatively, we provide a summary version of the report in our new Entry-Level Service.
If you have any other questions or requests, just get in contact.
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder
About the Service:
Our institutional service caters to multi-asset portfolio managers and investment professionals. The service comprises a set of reports (2 weekly, 1 monthly, 1 quarterly) and personalized service to help make the portfolio managers' job easier. With the service we deliver a flow of investment ideas, risk management input, and meaningful macro insights.
Our Head of Research and founder spent his career on the buy-side, and our reports reflect that perspective with a clear "so what?" focus rather than research for research sake. The reports are punchy and chart/fact focused, and are easy to read both in terms of speed and understanding: so clients often end up saving time and getting better insights. So if you're looking for a dedicated and specialist service to help you deliver excellent returns for your clients, give us a try.
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I found the Market Cycle Guidebook to be an insightful read, especially with its focus on global multi-asset allocation. How do you think the recent economic shifts will impact the upcoming months? Great to have a word to markdown converter for easy note-taking.
The Market Cycle Guidebook provides an incredibly clear framework for understanding where we currently stand in the global economic landscape. I found the analysis of macro-trends and valuation charts particularly helpful for identifying the shift between different phases of the cycle, as this knowledge is vital for effective risk management. Having a roadmap that simplifies complex financial data allows both seasoned and new investors to make more informed decisions during periods of volatility. This concept of looking for enduring value regardless of the market cycle is a philosophy that I believe applies to personal lifestyle choices as well. Much like a solid investment portfolio, a high-quality wardrobe should prioritize timeless pieces that do not lose their appeal over time. I…