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Market Cycle Guidebook - October 2021

We just published our October "Market Cycle Guidebook", which is one of the main reports in our institutional investment research service.

​​The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors.


It focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the intention of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.

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Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook: -Front page snapshot summary on the global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations -Market performance snapshot & commentary /highlights -Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); basically an "AA cheat sheet"

-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views -Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions -And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe

-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)

Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:


-Global economic recovery remains largely on-track

--but some of the big tailwinds are starting to fade

---rising bond yields, rate hikes in EM, falling fiscal impulse

--meanwhile inflation pressures remain intense

---backlogs/supply disruption continues to bite

---some measures of capacity utilization have bounced back sharply

--increasing risk of a policy mistake as central banks walk a fine line

---monetary policy is now a source vs suppressor of volatility


-Remain overweight growth assets vs defensive assets

--longer cycle is still in play; favoring growth assets

--but increasingly focused on short-term risk signals and cycle map

--paying closer attention to old reliable signposts for the macro/market cycle

--short-term focused on the risk outlook in emerging markets

---also mindful that our bond market risk indicators are still sounding warnings


The report is designed for active asset allocators, and professional investors who require top-down input in their investment process.


If you are interested in learning more about this report and our services, I suggest you get set up for a trial today and we will forward through a copy of the Market Cycle Guidebook and some of our other recent reports.

If you have any questions or requests, just get in contact.


Best regards,

Callum Thomas

Head of Research and Founder

>> To request a copy of the report, subscribe, or take a trial, please fill in the form here.

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