The following charts made the list either because they were something completely new or just super interesting (to me at least!) ...or indeed ones that helped illuminate some of the key developments across macro and markets.
These charts were featured in my just-released 2021 End of Year Special Report -- do check it out when you get a chance (free download as a holiday treat!).
n.b. I have updated the charts with the latest data (in a few cases the original idea has actually come entirely full-circle). Also on formatting: the italic text is a quote from the report in which the chart originally appeared.
Hope you enjoy!
1. Inflation Surprise! This was my go-to chart in highlighting the risks presented by inflation (as I figured that with folk’s inflation expectations skewed downwards by a decade of deflationary winds that my upside inflation scenario would be a big surprise).
“Already we’ve seen inflation surprises go from downside surprises to upside surprises across developed economies, and I’d expect that trend to continue.” (15 Jan 2021)
2. Global Monetary Policy Map: If the first chart in this report didn’t make it obvious enough, this next chart should: central banks are stepping away from stimulus, OK?
“With the lift-off in emerging markets (and the small/developing central banks), the global weighted average policy rate has clearly turned the corner. As such I would double down on the call I made earlier in the year for central banks globally to move to a more neutral stance – and actually, would probably be about time to shift the global policy outlook to hawkish.” (7 May 2021)
3. Global Oil & Gas Capex: The next chart shows in the blue line the fall and fall of global Oil & Gas capex: a key reason I stuck with the bullish bias for commodities and crude oil in particular… and a key reason to stay that way. As I note, the path to carbon zero will be paved with a commodities bull market as a logical consequence of the shifts in supply and demand, and investment required to make that shift.
“the medium-term outlook for crude oil: I think it’s worth highlighting again the capex picture for crude – global capex (and rig counts) remain near record lows. Clearly the pandemic has taken a toll on the sector. But the road to carbon zero is going to be a long one and the world won’t kick its petroleum habit overnight, and before we know it the world will be vaccinated, open for business, and potentially overstimulated.” (5 Feb 2021)
>>> These charts were featured in our 2021 End of Year Special Report.