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Weekly Macro Themes - 10 December 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Global Policy Watch: 2021 saw a clear pivot in monetary policy from easing to tightening. 2022 likely sees this theme move from “interesting” to *important* for asset allocation as risks shift. Check out our favorite charts on this topic.

2. Capex Theory: Prospective multi-year investment boom on the cards (cyclical uptick, commodity supply response, government infrastructure spend, climate/clean energy, supply chain rethinking and retooling).

3. Mega Theme Update: It’s been a mixed bag for this basket, but promising signs looking forward given how some of the aggregated indicators have turned.

4. US Dollar: Maintain the medium/longer-term bearish bias on the US dollar; opting to treat the recent breakout with skepticism in the face of an entrenched multi-year range-trade.

5. Global vs US Equities: Despite a continuation of the well-entrenched trend, the strategic case for global vs US remains compelling; basically awaiting the macro catalysts (and technicals for confirmation). We take a deep dive on this with a few new charts...

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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