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Weekly Macro Themes - 10 December 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Global Policy Watch: 2021 saw a clear pivot in monetary policy from easing to tightening. 2022 likely sees this theme move from “interesting” to *important* for asset allocation as risks shift. Check out our favorite charts on this topic.


2. Capex Theory: Prospective multi-year investment boom on the cards (cyclical uptick, commodity supply response, government infrastructure spend, climate/clean energy, supply chain rethinking and retooling).


3. Mega Theme Update: It’s been a mixed bag for this basket, but promising signs looking forward given how some of the aggregated indicators have turned.


4. US Dollar: Maintain the medium/longer-term bearish bias on the US dollar; opting to treat the recent breakout with skepticism in the face of an entrenched multi-year range-trade.


5. Global vs US Equities: Despite a continuation of the well-entrenched trend, the strategic case for global vs US remains compelling; basically awaiting the macro catalysts (and technicals for confirmation). We take a deep dive on this with a few new charts...



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

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