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Weekly Macro Themes - 10 June 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Capex Outlook: While the cyclical/short-term outlook is less certain (given likelihood of recession), the medium/longer-term outlook for capex growth looks good based on multiple drivers and multiple industries/areas of focus.

2. Corporate Credit: Reviewing the outlook for credit spreads given risk flags, deteriorating macro outlook, and original starting point of stretched valuations.

3. Stock/Bond Ratio: Checking in on the stock/bond ratio given valuations, technicals and sentiment, and macro (leading indicators).

4. US Dollar: Weighing up short-term strength vs stretched sentiment and positioning, expensive valuations, macro-divergence, and mixed longer-term technicals.

5. Global ex-US Equities: Taking a look at the longer-term on global vs US equities given relative valuations and sector exposures, as well as the short-term outlook with regards to relative earnings, technicals, and macro factors.

This is a preview of our main weekly report. To request more information about our institutional research service for your firm, simply fill in the form here. (n.b. the full service is aimed at fund managers and institutional investors)

About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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