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Weekly Macro Themes - 12 February 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Inflation Risk: Inflation risks are increasingly skewed to the upside both short & medium–term.


2. Inflation Implications: Upside risks to inflation also skew the risks to the upside for US treasury yields (and breakevens); at some point this may put pressure on equities as the equity risk premium shrinks.


3. Agri/Grains: Upside risk in agricultural commodities remains in play as fundamental forces (weather, capex, pandemic) coalesce with increasing speculative interest.


4. Small Cap Equities: Despite higher valuations and increased retail attention, longer term cycles and a greater weighting to cyclicals (vs tech) means small caps could continue to outperform.


5. Frontier Market Equities: The strategic (+ medium-term) case for frontier market equities remains very interesting, but short-term some of the tactical indicators look less convincing.


>> Zoom Calls are scheduled to go through this report on Monday 3pm New York time and Tuesday 8am London time - get in touch for details to register.

To request a copy of the full report and charts, or to subscribe to our services, or to request a free trial for your firm, simply fill in the form here.

About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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