Weekly Macro Themes - 13 May 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Equity Risk: Refreshing and reviewing the key charts and risk indicators for global equities as the bear market continues.

2. Bond Risk: Reviewing the outlook for treasuries given valuations, sentiment, technicals, and macro outlook, and importantly, focusing on the inflation fixation.

3. Pique Inflation: Interest has been piqued on “peak inflation” – there is still a clear inflationary impulse working its way through the economy, but the weight of risks are starting to shift towards the downside based on some of the charts we are looking at.

4. Commodities: Changing our longstanding view on commodities given the shifts in technicals, intermarkets, sentiment/positioning, macro outlook, value, and initial supply response. You definitely want to see these charts!

5. Agri Commodities: After a perfect storm, the risks are shifting to the downside for agricultural commodity prices (stretched prices, crowded bulls, rebounding capex/initial supply response).

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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