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Weekly Macro Themes - 14 Aug 2020

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service)

This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. US Dollar: Wary of the possibility for a bounce given the shift in sentiment and technicals, but given valuations, longer term cycles, and the trend in yield support; remain medium-term bearish.


2. US Treasuries: Given the shift in sentiment, technicals, macro indicators, and the forward looking/leading indicators, it’s quite possible we’ve already seen the low point in US 10yr yields.


3. Gold: With a credible case for near-term upside risk in real yields, and with sentiment indicators flashing warning signs, the correction in gold could have further to go.


4. Crude Oil: Short-term mixed (technicals, sentiment and positioning, seasonality), medium/longer-term bullish (expected supply tailwinds, and demand normalization).


5. EM ex-Asia (FX): EM ex-Asia FX looks cheap relative to history and relative to EM Asia; thus expect FX to be a medium-term tailwind for EM ex-Asia equities.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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