Weekly Macro Themes - 16 July 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Inflation: We look at the short-term vs medium-term picture for inflation and discuss the equally credible scenarios for sustained higher inflation vs deflation.
2. US Dollar: Sticking to our guns on the medium/longer-term view (given fundamentals and longer term technicals), we review the short-term outlook, and how it ties in.
3. Global vs US: We dig into what's driving the strength in US equities vs global ex-US; why are things on the move and what parts of the market are moving.
4. Value vs Growth: The value vs growth rotation seems to be stalling globally; we look at the global picture as well as honing in on the US value vs growth equities setup - including the short-term technicals and medium-term case.
5. UK Equities: A timely review of UK equities as the country moves out of lockdown rules and seeks to move forward into a post-Brexit, post-Covid world.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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The value vs growth rotation stalling is such an interesting tell — feels like the market is catching its breath after such a strong run. I've been watching the UK equities angle too, especially with all the reopening momentum finally translating into actual numbers. Speaking of patience and puzzle-solving, this reminds me of the monumentvalley 3 walkthrough — sometimes you need to step back and see the whole structure before the next move becomes obvious, which is kind of how I'm approaching this macro environment right now.
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