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Weekly Macro Themes - 16 September 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Fiscal/Tax Risk: Anticipate fiscal dynamics to exert macro headwinds (short-term potentially inflationary, medium-term growth-negative), also see upside risk to global corporate tax rates; overall presents further marginal headwinds for equities.

2. Capex Outlook: Reviewing the cyclical aspect of the capex boom thesis, as well as the structural/thematic and post-pandemic supply disruption response sub-themes.


3. Equity Sentiment Snapshot: Checking in on sentiment, positioning, and flows to see where things sit and what it means for the market outlook


4. Equity Valuations: Huge development in global forward PE ratios, fairly interesting charts but also some cautions and alternative methods to consider.


5. Sources of Upside? There are a variety of scenarios and candidates for upside risk for growth/equities, albeit most of the items listed are low probability in the immediate-term (but rising further out) [we collated and categorized these in a table].



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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