Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Fiscal/Tax Risk: Anticipate fiscal dynamics to exert macro headwinds (short-term potentially inflationary, medium-term growth-negative), also see upside risk to global corporate tax rates; overall presents further marginal headwinds for equities.
2. Capex Outlook: Reviewing the cyclical aspect of the capex boom thesis, as well as the structural/thematic and post-pandemic supply disruption response sub-themes.
3. Equity Sentiment Snapshot: Checking in on sentiment, positioning, and flows to see where things sit and what it means for the market outlook
4. Equity Valuations: Huge development in global forward PE ratios, fairly interesting charts but also some cautions and alternative methods to consider.
5. Sources of Upside? There are a variety of scenarios and candidates for upside risk for growth/equities, albeit most of the items listed are low probability in the immediate-term (but rising further out) [we collated and categorized these in a table].
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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