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Weekly Macro Themes - 19 March 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Global Equities in Review:  A year on, sentiment/positioning/technicals/internals have truly come full circle; thus the weight of risks are increasingly tilted more to the downside vs upside.


2. Global Equities (part 2):  On the bigger picture/medium-term outlook valuations look reasonable ex-US, but the ERP has shrunk a lot and policy has started to turn the corner. Stay the course, but keep watch.


3. Defensive Value:  “Defensive value” is approaching 2000-levels in terms of relative valuation discount; making it increasingly attractive – particularly as and when the time comes to move more defensive.


4. Commodities:  Although increasingly over-hyped, the medium/longer-term outlook for commodities looks good given macro tailwinds, weak capex, cheap valuations, and longer-term technicals.


5. Agri Update:  Still see possible upside for agri-commodities, but temper view to neutral given lopsided positioning/sentiment and the extent of the move thus far in price.




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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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