Weekly Macro Themes - 21 Aug 2020
Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service)
This week we covered the following topics/ideas:
1. US Election (Cycles and Stats): Anticipate higher volatility headed into September given the poll of polls cycles analysis (and stock market seasonality).
2. US vs Global ex-US: Maintain bullish medium-term call on global ex-US vs US equities on valuations (relative + absolute), longer-term cycles, USD view, and elevated political risk.
3. UK Equities: Some short-term uncertainties remain, but contrarian bullish medium-term on consensus underweights, cheap relative value, positive cyclical indicators.
4. Energy Stocks: The long suffering energy sector at least enjoys historically extreme cheap valuations, possible upside in an inflationary environment; carefully contrarian bullish.
5. Oil vs Gold (Equities): Oil and Energy stocks are trading near historical lows relative to gold/goldminers, and there is a clear relative value case for energy stocks vs gold miners.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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