Weekly Macro Themes - 22 July 2022
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Global Property Prices: Housing market valuations have surged post-pandemic, and are vulnerable to increasing macro headwinds. Housing risk outlook favors bonds vs stocks. Check out the charts that bring us to this conclusion.
2. Defensive Value: A review of our unique basket of sectors which have so far been a rare form of diversification this year in what has been a very unusual time.
3. Gold: Taking a check in on our suite of indicators for gold: flows, sentiment, positioning, FX breadth, real yields, policy pulse, allocations, valuations.
4. Gold Miners: Checking in on gold miners given the conclusions from topic 3, and adding in perspective for gold miners in absolute terms and relative (long/short vs S&P500).
5. Silver: Although sentiment/flows/positioning have taken a sharp move to the bearish side, it’s not time to turn contrarian bullish on silver yet for a number of key reasons - which we go into, as well as the next steps playbook...
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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