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Weekly Macro Themes - 23 April 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Treasuries: Expect a continued period of consolidation in bonds as oversold technicals and excess pessimism gets worked through, but remain bearish medium-term on valuations/macro.

2. US Dollar: The previously flagged technical/sentiment driven rally in the US dollar looks to have run its course; the medium/longer-term indicators still point bearish; so stay the course on the bearish view.

3. US HY Credit: Although credit spreads are expensive, the macro backdrop and intermarket indicators are still supportive, so I would say there is not quite enough evidence to turn outright bearish yet.

4. EM Fixed Income: While EM credit risk pricing is fairly tight, the duration picture has improved slightly, and the EMFX outlook is improving.

5. Value vs Growth: Mindful of technicals, but for now stay the course given valuations, anticipated mean reversion, sector exposures (favourable macro/thematics), and the global picture for value vs growth.

>> Zoom Calls are scheduled to go through this report on Monday 4pm New York time and Tuesday 10am London time - get in touch for details to register.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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