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Weekly Macro Themes - 23 April 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Treasuries: Expect a continued period of consolidation in bonds as oversold technicals and excess pessimism gets worked through, but remain bearish medium-term on valuations/macro.

2. US Dollar: The previously flagged technical/sentiment driven rally in the US dollar looks to have run its course; the medium/longer-term indicators still point bearish; so stay the course on the bearish view.

3. US HY Credit: Although credit spreads are expensive, the macro backdrop and intermarket indicators are still supportive, so I would say there is not quite enough evidence to turn outright bearish yet.

4. EM Fixed Income: While EM credit risk pricing is fairly tight, the duration picture has improved slightly, and the EMFX outlook is improving.

5. Value vs Growth: Mindful of technicals, but for now stay the course given valuations, anticipated mean reversion, sector exposures (favourable macro/thematics), and the global picture for value vs growth.



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

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