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Weekly Macro Themes - 24 July 2020

Here's an overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (one of the key reports of our institutional research service)

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This week we covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Global Earnings Pulse:  We’re starting to see green shoots in the faster moving earnings revisions indicators, albeit the hard data and longer term estimates remain very weak.  

2. Commodities:  Given cheap valuations, weak capex (future supply), decent technicals, improving sentiment and cycle indicators; reiterate medium-term bullish call. 

3. Small Caps:  The rebound in global small caps vs large caps has stalled out, but looking at some of the key charts the medium-term outlook is bullish for US small vs large caps (if a bit contrarian).

4. NZ Equities:  Despite yield demand and positive ERP (and retail[trading app] + KiwiSaver flows), remain cautious on NZ equities given extreme high absolute valuations.

5. AUDUSD (+NZD):  Comfortable to stick with bullish AUDUSD bias, but less one-sided now vs back in April.  NZDUSD is similar, but with a few uncertainties; less optimistic on NZDUSD by contrast.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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