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Weekly Macro Themes - 24 September 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Treasuries: We take a deep dive into treasuries technicals, sentiment, macro, valuations, seasonality, and the prospect of Fed taper to arrive at a clear view on the near term outlook for treasuries and global sovereign bonds.

2. US Dollar: Patiently bearish, but keeping close watch on the shorter term technicals (we also review the medium-term case given the key technical and fundamental variables).

3. EM Equities: We continue to maintain 2 separate views on Emerging Market equities - a short-term "risk watch" and a medium/longer-term view. We update both views with an extensive set of charts - basically all you need to know on EM.

4. EM vs DM: We check in on the long-term relative bear market in EM vs DM equities, outlining the key short-term and medium term variable to keep track on.

5. UK Equities: Remain bullish UK equities on solid earnings/dividend momentum, light positioning, attractive ERP, and deep discount vs global equities.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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