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Weekly Macro Themes - 26 March 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. EM Equities: Short-term technicals point to elevated downside risk for EM equities; medium-term the case still stands, albeit some elements of the original thesis have weakened.


2. EM ex-Asia: Remain bullish EM ex-Asia vs EM Asia given relative valuations, mean reversion, sentiment, commodity linkages, and attractive FX valuations.


3. Global Small & Value: Taking a progress check, there are promising signs on a headline basis & across countries for a continuation of the big turning point in global small/value vs large/growth.


4. Eurozone Equities: Remain bullish medium-term Eurozone equities on the basis of relative value, improving economic sentiment, substantial monetary (+fiscal) stimulus tailwinds.


5. NZ Equities: Despite the correction, NZ equities remain expensive and (and share a few commonalities with the US), yet still see some relative value vs fixed income alternatives (albeit the gap is shrinking).



note: no zoom calls next week (will be working on the Monthly + Quarterly packs)

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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