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Weekly Macro Themes - 27 August 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Treasuries: Continue to lean bearish treasuries given expensive valuations, divergence vs macro/market variables, and initial reset in sentiment; but awaiting a catalyst(s) to trigger a move.

2. REITs: Overall prefer to remain neutral given the preponderance of mixed signals. Check out the charts we're watching to gauge the risk vs return outlook.

3. Property: Property price inflation is surging and developed market residential real estate valuations have surpassed all previous record highs (thanks to the pandemic policy response).

4. Small Caps: US small caps are starting to look interesting again after a big reset in relative performance, relative valuations, and capitulation in flows/positioning.

5. European Equities: Remain optimistic on European equities given solid macro and price momentum, clear relative value, and bullish medium-term bias on the EURUSD.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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