Weekly Macro Themes - 27 August 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Treasuries: Continue to lean bearish treasuries given expensive valuations, divergence vs macro/market variables, and initial reset in sentiment; but awaiting a catalyst(s) to trigger a move.
2. REITs: Overall prefer to remain neutral given the preponderance of mixed signals. Check out the charts we're watching to gauge the risk vs return outlook.
3. Property: Property price inflation is surging and developed market residential real estate valuations have surpassed all previous record highs (thanks to the pandemic policy response).
4. Small Caps: US small caps are starting to look interesting again after a big reset in relative performance, relative valuations, and capitulation in flows/positioning.
5. European Equities: Remain optimistic on European equities given solid macro and price momentum, clear relative value, and bullish medium-term bias on the EURUSD.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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