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Weekly Macro Themes - 27 November 2020

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I put this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Global Equities: In the absence of overvaluation (ex-US), and with still strong monetary tailwinds, improving market breadth, market leadership transition, and improving sentiment; remain bullish.

2. Emerging Markets: Despite some odd readings in the indicators, remain bullish EM equities given reasonable valuations*, improving sentiment + technicals, monetary tailwinds, and positive EMFX outlook.

3. EM Ex-Asia: Within EM Equities, prefer EM excluding-Asia given the previous wild underperformance, current mild valuation case, contrarian sentiment signals, and wild undervaluation of EM ex-Asia FX.

4. REITs: Remain neutral on REITs given the various cross-currents, albeit the vaccine reaction goes to show how the sector has basically become a normalization play.

5. Gold: Given still expensive valuations, turning tides in real yields, tactical risk indicators, and the fact gold is presently sitting on the technical precipice ($1800 support level); remain bearish.


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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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