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Weekly Macro Themes - 29 April 2022

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Leading Indicators: We review a dozen of our leading indicators and present the consensus of the leading indicators for the economic outlook.


2. Global Equities Risk Review: Remain cautious on global equities given deteriorating technicals, weakening earnings revisions, downside risks to growth, and monetary stimulus removal.


3. Stock/Bond Ratio: Taking stock of the stock/bond ratio after the big moves in both stocks and bonds, and weighing up the balance on the outlook.

4. Industrial Metals: Industrial metals have had a strong run on the back of multiple tailwinds, but the near-term outlook is uncertain as a growth slowdown looms; China is set to decide the next steps.

5. Capital Market Assumptions [update]: Slight upgrade to nominal growth inputs following latest IMF data. Adds to the trend of rising expected returns (along with rising yields, falling valuations).



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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