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Weekly Macro Themes - 29 January 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. EM Equities: Given short-term risk flags and the shift in valuations, a more cautious stance is warranted short-term, but medium-term EM Equities still have room to run (particularly relative to US).

2. EM ex-Asia: Given relative valuations (FX + Equities), linkages with commodities, and promising medium/longer-term technicals, remain bullish EM ex-Asia.

3. EM ex-China: Initial findings from initiation of coverage of “EMEC” shows a slight valuation discount has opened up between EMEC vs China (and that tilting opportunities are viable).

4. EMFX: Short-term EMFX appears to be in the process of a selloff, but retain the core medium-term bullish view on valuations, macro, and medium-term technicals.

5. EM Fixed Income: While EM fixed income does provide some yield pickup/relative value vs developed markets, it shares the features of tight credit risk pricing and unfavourable duration risk outlook.


>> Zoom Calls are scheduled to go through this report on Monday 3pm New York time and Tuesday 8am London time - get in touch for details to register.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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