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Weekly Macro Themes - 29 October 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:


1. Treasuries:  A review of the weight of risks for bond yields based on where things sit on the technicals, sentiment, intermarket analysis, macro models, and valuations.


2. US Dollar:  We reconcile the short-term price action against the longer term view.


3. Commodities:  Shorter-term there are some distinctly mixed signals, but medium-longer term the bull case remains compelling (underinvestment in supply, long-term technicals, demand boost from capex).


4. Eurozone:  A review of the outlook for European equities (and EURUSD) based on macro/earnings momentum, monetary support, relative valuations, dividend outlook.


5. CMA Update:  The nominal growth inputs have been revised up across the board for our Capital Market Assumptions (reflects an element of base effects, but also stimulus and recovery/rebuilding efforts).



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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

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