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Weekly Macro Themes - 29 October 2021

Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Treasuries:  A review of the weight of risks for bond yields based on where things sit on the technicals, sentiment, intermarket analysis, macro models, and valuations.

2. US Dollar:  We reconcile the short-term price action against the longer term view.

3. Commodities:  Shorter-term there are some distinctly mixed signals, but medium-longer term the bull case remains compelling (underinvestment in supply, long-term technicals, demand boost from capex).

4. Eurozone:  A review of the outlook for European equities (and EURUSD) based on macro/earnings momentum, monetary support, relative valuations, dividend outlook.

5. CMA Update:  The nominal growth inputs have been revised up across the board for our Capital Market Assumptions (reflects an element of base effects, but also stimulus and recovery/rebuilding efforts).

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.

Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.

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