Weekly Macro Themes - 30 April 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Commodities: Commodities are breaking out again after a brief consolidation. Remain bullish on long-term technicals/cycles, supply tailwinds, and anticipated cyclical+thematic demand tailwinds.
2. Industrial Metals: The long-term technicals picture for industrial metals sees a number of parallels to the early 2000’s major breakout (which serves as a useful playbook for the current breakout).
3. Energy Stocks: Remain bullish energy stocks on valuations, technicals, and the oil price outlook.
4. Global Banks: Though they face a near-term technical test, global banks still see decent value (especially global ex-US banks relative to US banks).
5. ERP Update: Absolute valuations for US equities are absolutely expensive, but for now the ERP does not quite agree (so constructive near-term, but cautious longer-term).
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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