Weekly Macro Themes - 4 September 2020
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I put this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Global Monetary Policy Pulse: The “over-easing” hypothesis could be a key factor in cementing what already looks like the beginning phases of a cyclical bull market in global equities (beyond the rebound).
2. Dividend Futures (FTSE100): Dividend futures may offer an attractive alternative means of gaining exposure to the bullish UK equities view (but a couple things need to go right).
3. Dividend Futures (EuroStoxx50): European dividend futures trade very similarly to UK dividend futures, and also offer an interesting alternative to taking a direct position in European equities.
4. US Dividend Outlook: The US dividend futures market trades more in line with what you would expect; yet the market implied growth rates look quite pessimistic vs analysts consensus.
5. CMA & ERP: The prospective Equity Risk Premium implied by the Capital Market Assumptions paints a challenging longer term picture for US equities [but with overshoot risk in the immediate term].
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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