Weekly Macro Themes - 5 March 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Global Backlogs: The data continue to show the impact of global backlogs and supply chain disruption (and the resultant pricing pressure that is clearly coming through now).
2. US Dollar: Short-term the dollar could rally given the sentiment/positioning/technicals picture, further out the bear case remains intact but conviction levels are lower given how the indicators have moved.
3. Global ex-US Equities: Remain bullish global ex-US vs US equities given promising technicals, greater linkages to the global economic recovery, and a compelling relative valuation picture.
4. REIT Review: While some sectors within REITs look interesting as beneficiaries of normalization, risks remain for CRE and the overall mixed picture means the easy answer is remain neutral on the asset class.
5. Expected Returns – US Equities: The main driver of negative expected returns is expensive valuations; even under the most generous theoretical recalculations the expected real return is still negative.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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