Weekly Macro Themes - 9 April 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I send this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Global PMI Pulse: The data show a broadening recovery - albeit signs of weakness in EM, more evident pricing pressures (but given the already significant movement in TIPS breakevens, move to neutral).
2. Global Equities - Tax Trends: Anticipate a turn in the previous longer term trend of falling effective tax rates for global equities (particularly US equities); thus expect tax to go from tailwind to headwind.
3. Global Equity Super Sectors: Global ex-US has a greater weight to “old cyclicals” and hence greater exposure to a recovery in real activity; notably EM has the largest exposure (and smallest to defensives).
4. US vs Global - Valuations: No matter which way you cut it, US equities look expensive vs their own history, and especially vs the rest of the world.
5. CADUSD [initiating coverage]: Mindful of short-term downside risk signals, but medium/longer-term: valuation, macro tailwinds, policy outlook, and rate differentials point to upside.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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