Weekly Macro Themes - 9 July 2021
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. US Equity Valuations: A review of US equity market valuations; comparison vs history, vs rest of the world, vs bonds. Charts document a few different metrics.
2. Treasuries: Reviewing the outlook for bond yields given the extreme valuation picture, macro/market divergences, and the more recent developments in sentiment, technicals, and seasonality...
3. Seasonality: An interesting look at defensive vs risk asset relative seasonality, seasonal trends in sentiment/macro, and US Dollar seasonality considerations.
4. Safe Haven FX: We identify just what exactly are the risky vs safe currencies, and outline the technicals, relative valuations, and positioning backdrop.
5. Defensive Value: We document the valuation, positioning, market cap weighting, seasonal trends, and short-term technicals for this very interesting corner of the market.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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