Weekly Macro Themes - 9 October 2020
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (the flagship report of our institutional research service). I put this report out weekly late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk management topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. US Election – Cash & Catalysts: Clearing the event risk (either way) could be a key upside catalyst.
2. Dividend Futures (update): The dividend futures markets continue to trade at significantly more pessimistic levels relative to consensus forward estimates of dividends (implying a potential mispricing).
3. Gold: Bearish gold as tactical indicators point to downside risk, real yields likely head higher, valuations remain stretched, future supply headwinds, and prospect that fiscal stimulus takes pressure off the Fed.
4. Gold Miners: Turn bearish; consistent with the view on gold, and tactical risk indicators.
5. Oil vs Gold (drillers vs miners): Bullish oil vs gold (and energy stocks vs gold mining stocks) given the diverging macro/supply/valuations/tactical picture.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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