Weekly Macro Themes - 9 September 2022
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe.
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Global Growth Outlook: review of the global growth outlook based on the very latest real time data and leading indicators. See also: Recession Watch 2022
2. Inflation Outlook: weighing up the risks to the inflation outlook based on supply responses, backlogs, commodity prices, demand, leading indicators and monetary policy.
3. Commodities: Despite an initial correction in commodity prices, still see clear downside risk given bearish momentum in flows/positioning/sentiment, proprietary long-term technical risk flags, multiple macro headwinds, and lingering overvaluation by our metrics.
4. Treasuries: review of the outlook for treasuries based on a spectrum of exclusive charts mapping out the key factors and risk-drivers. See also: Bond ChartStorm
5. Global Equities: checking in on global equity technicals as well as the weight of risks in emerging markets, Europe, the USA and general risk outlook for equities.
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.
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